What I think I know… and what I don’t

In Tuesday’s debate between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama, Hillary once again said that she wished she could take back her 2002 vote on Iraq.  

 

I’ll admit that this is a concept I just don’t understand.  Clinton refers to her vote as “sincere,” but says that she “would not have voted that way again.”  What exactly does that mean?  

 

I always thought that a person makes a thoughtful, well-made decision based on the summation of their knowledge in a given moment.  If this model is true, then it is impossible for any decision to occur differently.  This isn’t a denial of free will, but an understanding that hindsight is a luxury of the future.

 

Clinton’s comment that she “would not have voted that way again,” is in actuality a logical fallacy.  At that point in time, considering what she knew – or at least what she thought she knew –  Hillary could make no other decision.  To imply that she could have made a different decision is to deny the butterfly effect (sensitive dependence on initial conditions).

 

In my opinion, Hillary’s logical looniness isn’t necessarily her fault.  She’s simply reacting, as people do, to what is happening around her.  Democrats pour praise upon Obama for voting against the war in Iraq as if he knew what would come to pass.  As it is impossible to tell future, Obama’s vote is, at best, a guess.  He had a 50% chance, based on a yes or no vote, to come out looking like a genius. 

 

It’s similar to a football coach calling a 2-point conversion following a touchdown.  If it works, the coach is a genius; if not, he is a buffoon.  Any amount of variables can indicate to the a coach the probability of success, but none of those calculations have any affect on the actual outcome of the play.

 

What does this say about the nature of making decisions?   

A different feeling

When it comes to politics, I generally find it hard to feel anything other than apathy. I find it almost impossible to shake the feeling that politicians are simply saying what I want to hear.

Barack Obama makes me feel differently, which is why I voted for him in the Arizona primary. To put it simply: the guy is inspiring. He’s more inspiring than any president or presidential candidate I can remember (granted, that isn’t many).

Following a defeat in New Hampshire primary, Obama gave a speech to his supporters, assuring them that the country was ready for change (Note that this video has been edited together with other footage). It’s easy to understand the reasoning for such a positive speech at this point in the campaign, as he’d just won the Iowa caucus days before. This fact, however, doesn’t make his speech any less powerful.

I’ve never been excited about a politician before.

I guess there’s a first time for everything.